![]() ![]() The temperature of the waters at depth, from the central Pacific eastward and extending several hundred meters below the surface, has become moderately above average since early April 2018. The distribution of cloudiness and precipitation, however, suggests a lingering pattern of the La Niña that recently ended, with below-average cloudiness in the central tropical Pacific and near to above-average cloudiness and rainfall in the vicinity of Indonesia. Most of the main atmospheric indicators have also returned to neutral, including the trade winds and the patterns of sea level pressure. Since late April 2018, sea surface temperatures across much of the east-central tropical Pacific returned to neutral levels following the La Niña of 2017-18. ![]() National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months. However, such long-lead ENSO forecasts have substantial uncertainty, mainly related to the fact that forecasts going through the March-June period have lower confidence than those made in the second half of the year. Many models further indicate this period to be marked by a gradual warming of the tropical Pacific, eventually reaching a possible weak El Niño level by the fourth quarter of the year. Most dynamical and statistical forecast models suggest a continuation of the neutral conditions into the third quarter of 2018. Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific as well as most of the overlying atmospheric indicators suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions are prevailing that is, neither El Niño nor La Niña. ![]()
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